Washington, D.C. – A new national poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday indicates a shift in the political landscape following the Republican National Convention and significant changes within the Democratic campaign. The poll shows Senator Kamala Harris leading President Donald Trump 44% to 42%, a margin within the 3-percentage-point error range.
The latest data contrasts with a poll from last week, which showed President Joe Biden trailing Trump by a narrow two-point margin before his unexpected withdrawal from the race on Sunday. Biden’s exit came with an endorsement for Harris, who has since secured the Democratic nomination.
Harris’ campaign now claims a slight edge over Trump, despite the results remaining within the error margin. Previous polls from mid-July showed the candidates tied or with Trump holding a marginal lead, reflecting a volatile and competitive race.
National polls are critical indicators but ultimately, the U.S. Electoral College, influenced by a few key states, decides the presidential outcome. Trump’s campaign downplayed Harris’ recent gains, attributing them to a temporary surge in media attention. “That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” stated Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio.
Notably, Trump did not receive the anticipated post-convention boost, as revealed by the poll. This underscores Biden’s strategic withdrawal and Harris’ subsequent rise, supported by recent polling data.
Harris Viewed as More Capable Than Biden, Trump
The survey found 56% of registered voters believe Harris, 59, is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% for Trump, 78. Only 22% viewed Biden, 81, in the same light, reflecting on his decision to end his campaign following a challenging debate with Trump.
Biden’s favorable rating among Democratic voters stands at 80%, compared to Harris’ 91%. A significant 75% of Democrats support unifying behind Harris, while 25% prefer a competitive nomination process.
In a hypothetical three-way race including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris leads Trump 42% to 38%, with Kennedy drawing 8% support. Kennedy’s impact remains limited as he has not yet qualified for the ballot in many states.
Harris’ campaign activities have intensified, with a recent visit to Wisconsin, a key battleground state. Attention now shifts to her choice of running mate, with potential candidates like U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
The online poll, conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters, offering a comprehensive snapshot of the current electoral climate.
