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LCCI: May 2025 shows modest, new shift in the country’s inflation trajectory

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a statement said the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.97 percent in May 2025, down from 23.71 percent in April 2025. This marks a positive, albeit modest, new shift in the country’s inflation trajectory after several months of persistent increases the statement stated.LCCI Director-General, Dr. Chinyere Almona, argued that the marginal decline may have been driven by the consistent monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), including interest rate adjustments and liquidity control mechanisms. However, she explained that this improvement must be viewed cautiously, considering prevailing structural risks and looming food production and distribution shocks. She maintained that the the recent spate of herdsmen-farmers clashes in the middle-belt region and flooding disasters are negative signals capable of limiting food harvest this year.

According to her Logistics and supply chain risks also loom on the back of the current escalations in the Middle East and the deadlocked ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.She said : ‘Importing fuel and other products may become more expensive as oil prices have risen due to unabating tensions and trade wars. These shocks pose significant risks to food availability and prices, which could drive food inflation — an essential component of the headline inflation index — in the third and fourth quarters of 2025’.

She recommended a coordinated mix of fiscal and monetary policy actions, including reforms in the oil and gas sector. She stressed the need to sustain Naira for crude and the mandated crude supply to local refineries. Almona also canvassed the need for CBN to maintain prudent monetary policy while improving credit access to productive sectors, especially agriculture and manufacturing, to stimulate supply-side responses to inflation. The stoppage of government ways and means provisions should be sustained no matter the pressure she added.

The LCCI boss called for an urgent need for the government to scale up support for dry season farming, irrigation infrastructure, and mechanization to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture.She also asked that government must remain focused on dealing with the challenges around food movement from the farms to the cities. Address inefficiencies in transporting goods particularly food from rural to urban markets can help lower market prices and reduce post-harvest losses.

She advised that government spending should prioritize critical sectors with high inflation pass-through, such as food, energy, and transport, while eliminating leakages and enhancing social safety nets for vulnerable households.In her words: ‘While the easing inflation rate is a welcome development, Nigeria must not lose momentum in addressing the structural drivers of inflation. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry urges the government to act decisively in tackling insecurity, investing in resilient agricultural infrastructure, and improving policy coordination to ensure the current progress becomes sustainable and inclusive’ she stated.