Blinken’s visit – what would have been the first by a secretary of state to China since 2018 – was seen largely as an effort to develop ways to navigate future crises. With a trip to Taiwan by new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy likely this year, the next crisis might not be far off.
“Overall, I do think the Biden administration would like to reschedule, as there are many issues on the table and a real chance for a thaw. But the balloon incident probably means the thaw is postponed indefinitely,” said RAND Corporation Indo-Pacific analyst Derek Grossman.
But Ryan Hass, a China expert at the Brookings Institution, said on Twitter that China’s balloon operation had at least given the United States and China a chance to work out rules of engagement in space and at high altitudes, where the two countries’ militaries will come into increasingly close contact.
“We should not squander this opportunity to materially reduce risk and also prevent future violations of U.S. airspace by PRC spy balloons,” Hass said.
